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Pipeline Health
Overview
The Pipeline Health feature lets you record your sales pipeline data month by month — no CRM connection needed. Once you start entering data, a Pipeline Health widget appears on your dashboard showing your pipeline coverage, expected closes, and a pipeline-adjusted runway alongside your normal cash runway.
Over time the system learns your actual close rate from the data you enter, replacing your initial estimate with a real number.
Getting Started
Where to find it
Navigate to Pipeline Data in the left sidebar (under the Data section, below Operations Data).
When to use it
- You have active sales conversations or deals in progress
- You want to see how your pipeline affects your runway
- You want to track whether your close rate estimate is realistic
If you have no pipeline activity yet, you can skip this feature. The Pipeline Health widget will not appear on the dashboard until you add at least one snapshot.
Adding Your First Month
Click the orange button (bottom-right of the page) to add a new month entry.
Each month has two sections:
Forward-looking pipeline
Fill these in at the start or during the month while deals are still open.
| Field | What to enter |
|---|---|
| Total Pipeline Value | The full € value of all open deals combined |
| Weighted Pipeline | Multiply each deal's value by its win probability and sum them up. Example: a €50k deal at 60% = €30k weighted. |
| Expected to Close This Month | Total value of deals you realistically expect to sign this calendar month |
| Expected Close Next 90 Days | Total pipeline value you expect to close within the next 3 months — this drives the pipeline-adjusted runway calculation |
| Avg Deal Size | Your typical deal value |
| Number of Open Deals | How many deals are currently active |
| Founder Close Rate Assumption | Your best guess at what % of expected deals actually close. The system will replace this with a real number once it has enough history. |
Retrospective actuals
Fill these in after the month has closed — ideally within the first week of the following month.
| Field | What to enter |
|---|---|
| Closed from this month's pipeline | Of the deals you expected to close this month, how much actually closed. This is used to calculate your real close rate. |
| Late closes from prior months | Deals that were in last month's (or older) pipeline and finally closed this month. Enter the € value here, not in the field above. |
| Actual New Customers | How many new customers you signed this month from pipeline |
Why the two separate "closed" fields? Deals slip. A deal you expected in January might close in March. If you mix late arrivals with this month's closes, the system cannot tell whether you are closing deals on time or just catching up on older pipeline. Keeping them separate gives you an honest close rate.
The Self-Calibrating Close Rate
When you first start, the system uses your Founder Close Rate Assumption to estimate how much of your pipeline will convert. This is just a starting point.
Once you have filled in retrospective actuals for 3 or more months, the system calculates your real close rate automatically:
Real close rate = total actually closed / total expected to close
(across all months with actuals recorded)When this kicks in, a blue banner appears at the top of the page:
System-derived close rate: 34% — calculated from 4 months of actuals. This overrides the founder assumption in pipeline-adjusted runway calculations.
The real close rate is more conservative and more accurate than a founder estimate. It updates automatically every time you add new actuals.
Dashboard Widget
Once you have at least one pipeline snapshot, the Pipeline Health widget appears on your main dashboard (Row 5, next to Customer Cohorts).
What it shows
Coverage ratio (chip in the top-right corner of the widget)
How many months of last month's revenue your weighted pipeline covers.
- Green (3× or above) — healthy pipeline relative to current revenue
- Amber (1.5–3×) — moderate
- Red (below 1.5×) — pipeline is thin
Key metrics
- Total Pipeline — full value of open deals
- Weighted Pipeline — probability-adjusted value
- Expected to Close This Month — near-term revenue
- Expected Close Next 90 Days — medium-term revenue
- Avg Deal Size and Open Deals count
- Effective Close Rate — system-derived if available, founder estimate otherwise. Shown in green when the system has calculated it from real data.
- Pipeline-Adjusted Runway — see below
Actuals (last recorded month)
If you have filled in retrospective actuals, the widget shows:
- Closed from this pipeline (used for close rate)
- Late closes from prior months (if any)
- Total closed (sum of both, shown when late closes exist)
- New customers
Pipeline trend chart
A line chart of your total pipeline value over time, so you can see whether your pipeline is growing or shrinking.
Pipeline-Adjusted Runway
Your Cash Runway widget gains a second row when pipeline data exists:
Runway 8.2 months
Pipeline-Adjusted 11.4 months (including expected pipeline closes)How it is calculated:
Adjusted runway = (current cash + expected closes next 90 days × effective close rate)
÷ monthly burn rateThis gives you a more realistic view of how long you can operate if your pipeline converts. It uses your real close rate when available, and your founder assumption otherwise.
Note: this is a planning metric, not a guarantee. It assumes pipeline closes arrive evenly and that burn rate stays constant.
History Table
At the bottom of the Pipeline Data page, a history table shows all your saved months with:
- Total Pipeline and Weighted Pipeline
- Expected closes vs. actual closes from this pipeline
- Late closes from prior months
- Total revenue closed that month
- Close rate chip (green if actuals met or exceeded expected, amber if below)
- New customers
Tips
Fill in actuals promptly. The close rate calculation only improves when you fill in the retrospective fields. A few minutes at the start of each month makes the system significantly more useful.
Be honest with late closes. It is tempting to record everything in "Closed from this month's pipeline" for simplicity. But if a deal slipped from last month, put it in "Late closes from prior months" — your close rate will be more accurate and the system will serve you better over time.
Start with a conservative close rate assumption. Early-stage founders tend to overestimate how quickly deals close. Starting at 20–30% and letting the system correct upward is safer than starting at 70% and seeing your runway projections be consistently wrong.
You can add past months. If you are setting this up after a few months of sales activity, add historical snapshots going back as far as you have data. The system will immediately calculate a close rate from the history you provide.